Sentiment & Risk

Market Mood — GrahamTerminal composite

Six market-internal signals, each percentile-ranked over the trailing 252 trading days and equally weighted: SPY momentum vs its 125-day average, Russell 1000 52-week-high breadth, 5-day breadth, junk-bond outperformance, volatility (via VXX), and SPY vs TLT safe-haven demand. This is not CNN’s Fear & Greed Index. It shares neither its inputs nor its methodology — CNN uses the put/call ratio, the McClellan oscillator and VIX itself, while this uses VXX, a rolling-futures ETN whose roll cost drifts its own baseline over time. Read it against its own history, not against CNN’s number.

VIX Proxy (VXX) — 1Y
VXX tracks short-term VIX futures. Our market-data provider does not expose the VIX index directly; VXX is the closest live proxy.

Treasuries & Fed

Yield curve and 10Y–2Y spread

Current curve
10Y–2Y spread (history)
A negative spread (inversion) has preceded every US recession since 1955. Currently .

Valuation

Buffett Indicator (US market cap ÷ GDP)

Sum of Russell 1000 market cap divided by latest US GDP. Above 100% historically signaled overvaluation; today's reading reflects a structural shift toward a higher fair-value regime.

Today's reading:

US macro

Headline economic series

Cross-asset

Commodities, FX, and crypto (1Y)